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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 04/02 11:54
Cattle Markets Stabilize Thursday Morning
Narrow to moderate gains have redeveloped in cattle futures Thursday morning
as traders assess the market rally seen through the week. This could lead to
light trade through the end of the day as traders prepare for the long holiday
weekend.
Rick Kment
DTN Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Cattle futures started the day with follow-through buyer support trickling
into the market. Following the aggressive market gains earlier in the week,
traders seem to be still optimistic, but much less aggressive as the week comes
to a close. With markets closed Friday due to the Easter Holiday break,
late-day pressure may continue to trickle into most contract months, with
traders focusing more on position squaring before the three-day weekend, rather
than additional market adjustments based on demand or outside market
indicators. Live cattle futures remain slightly higher, but have backed away
from early highs, while feeder cattle futures are mixed in limited trade at
midday. Hog futures are also steady to moderately lower at midday as traders
continue to see very little fundamental or technical market shifts developing
in the market ahead of the closed trading day Friday. May corn is down 1 3/4 at
$4.525 and May soybean meal is down $4.20 at $314.00. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average is down 188.30 at 46,377.44.
LIVE CATTLE
Live cattle futures remain positive at midday with light to moderate gains
redeveloping early Thursday morning. Although prices continue to shift higher,
the lack of market support and enthusiasm seen earlier in the week seems to
have dwindled significantly as traders try to find a balance at the higher
price points. The potential for firming cash cattle trade and firming beef
values will continue to be watched significantly over the next couple of weeks,
but currently, traders seem to be comfortable with current positions and
willing to keep markets within a narrow to moderate range through the end of
the week. Futures trade will remain closed Friday due to the Good Friday
holiday, leaving markets closed until next Monday. This could allow for some
additional market shifts before the end of trade Thursday, but without a major
outside market disruption, prices will likely coast into the long weekend with
the current light to moderate gains, especially in nearby live cattle futures
contracts. Cash cattle markets are starting to slowly develop, with bids now on
the table in many areas, but so far, they are being passed by feeders. Asking
prices have not been fully established as of yet. Packer inquiry will continue
to improve as the day progresses; however, significant trade volume may be
delayed until later today or Friday. In the weekly export sales report, for the
period ending March 26, beef net sales of 11,900 MT for 2026 were up 12 percent
from the previous week, but down 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Increases primarily for South Korea (3,800 MT), Japan (3,100 MT), Mexico (1,300
MT), Taiwan (1,200 MT), and Hong Kong (800 MT) were offset by reductions for
the Philippines (100 MT). Exports of 13,600 MT were down 5 percent from the
previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The destinations
were primarily to South Korea (4,500 MT), Japan (2,900 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT),
Taiwan (1,100 MT), and Hong Kong (1,100 MT). April live cattle are $1.13 higher
at $245.175, June live cattle are $0.90 higher at $245.25 and August live
cattle are $0.78 higher at $241.45. Boxed beef prices are Lower: choice down
$3.99 ($390.43) and select down $4.91 ($387.68) with a movement of 65.64 loads
(39.66 loads of choice, 5.14 loads of select, 18.48 loads of trim and 2.36
loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle markets started higher early Thursday morning but have been
moving in a narrow but mixed trading range through most of the morning. Limited
overall trade is seen Thursday as traders continue to focus on aggressive gains
seen earlier in the week, while the overall outlook for beef and cattle markets
still remains bullish. But with markets closed Friday and a long holiday
weekend approaching, limited new buyer interest is seen Thursday morning,
allowing for some end-of-the-week position-taking and market squaring activity.
Within one week, the markets have focused on aggressive outside market swings,
end-of-month adjustments, quarter-end positioning, and a holiday-shortened
trading week. While there are very few strong foundational fundamental changes
developing in the cattle or feeder cattle markets through the week. April
feeders are $0.68 higher at $371.425, May feeders are $1.00 higher at $369. and
August feeders are $1.25 higher at $368.1.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog prices have softened slightly in futures trade Thursday morning.
The lack of new information in both outside markets and the hog complex has
left traders seemingly directionless at the end of the week. Markets will
remain closed Friday due to Good Friday and the upcoming Easter weekend. Hog
slaughter will also remain moderately subdued Friday and Saturday, and
traditionally, next Monday has limited processing runs also, which, given the
current amount of market-ready hogs, will limit cash buying intensity by
packers over the next week. This is in part focused on current supply, and also
outside economic concerns, which may impact pork demand through the end of the
year. April lean hogs are $0.38 lower at $90.55, May lean hogs are $0.48 lower
at $96.3 and June lean hogs are $0.50 lower at $104.675. Hog Prices are
unreported due to confidentiality on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report. Pork
Cutouts totaled 127.08 loads with 108.56 loads of pork cuts and 18.52 loads of
trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.84 at $97.97.
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